Inside Emmy: Handicapping Best Comedy Series

by Daniel Frankel
Aug 23rd, 2009 | 2:20 PM | Comments 0

With creator and star Tina Fey coming off an career-type year of Sarah Palin impressions and continued laughs in her own prime time series, “30 Rock” looks to threepeat in this category. But “The Office” was strong last season, too, and this category includes an additional two contenders this year. Let’s look at what Emmy voters are likely thinking.

ENTOURAGE (HBO)

Why It Will Win: Nominated for comedy series the last three years, Vincent Chase’s career resurgence last season will push it over the top. “People in show business like shows about show business,” notes Newark Star-Ledger TV critic Alan Sepinwall.

Why It Won’t: So many reasons, starting with the fact that HBO comedies don’t skew broadly enough to win the big Emmy (reference all those years “Curb Your Enthusiasm” came away empty-handed… and don’t count “Sex and the City” all the way back in 2001). Indeed, Emmy voters love Ari Gold, giving Jeremy Piven three trophies and counting for supporting thesp. But there simply aren’t enough 18-34-year-old males in the TV Academy for “Entourage” to win series.

FAMILY GUY (Fox)

Why It Will Win: It was off the Fox schedule for three years, and they said it would never come back, and it did. Moral: Never count out Seth MacFarlane.

Why It Won’t: Never mind the fact that “Family Guy” is the first cartoon series to ever compete in this big-league category, the effete Emmy voting body never showed this raunchy series any love when it was competing against “The Simpsons” in animation ghetto.

FLIGHT OF THE CONCHORDS (HBO)

Why It Will Win: Recent dominance of “The Office” and “30 Rock” in this category proves that Emmy voters like smart, innovative single-camera comedies.

Why It Won’t: If “Entourage” can’t draw a broad enough cross-section of Emmy voters to win, this niche comedy certainly won’t, either.

HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER (CBS)

Why It Will Win: Emmy voters used to love young, freshly written ensemble comedies, with either “Friends,” “Frasier” and “Everybody Loves Raymond” winning this trophy every year. Last season, “Mother” became the first ensembler to rise to that level since those shows left the air.

Why It Won’t: It’s a great show that’s right down the wheelhouse of what the TV Academy likes. Unfortunately, voters just like “The Office” and “30 Rock” more right now.

THE OFFICE (NBC)

Why It Will Win: It’s won before (2006), and last season was as good as that freshman campaign was creatively.

Why It Won’t: Emmy voters seem a little bored with it. Last year, “The Office” received zero trophies to show for eight nominations. “I think ‘The Office’ should win, but ’30 Rock’ will win,” says critic Sepinwall.

WEEDS (Showtime)

Why It Will Win: Star Mary-Louise Parker shows up personally at the Burbank condos and tony Westside homes of each Emmy voter… with a batch of brownies she baked herself!

Why It Won’t: This category is about big network comedies (“Sex in the City” in 2001 was the only cable show in semi-recent history to win it). Niche cable shows about pot moms may very well win Parker a lead-actor trophy – anything’s possible. But a Showtime series winning this thing when HBO’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Entourage” haven’t been able to? That’s not going to happen.

30 ROCK (NBC)

Why It Will Win: At last, the odd-on favorite to threepeat in this category after wins in 2007 and 2008. “Emmy voters like Tina Fey,” Sepinwall notes. “She had a great year in terms of all the Sarah Palin stuff. And the inside baseball stuff about the entertainment business that hurts ratings actually helps when it comes to Emmy votes.”

Why It Won’t: Emmy voters realize “The Office” is actually funnier.